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Tuesday, December 3, 2024

Jeremi Riefkin predicts 1 billion refugees for every 1°C rise.

I will read the article for you. In December 1973, long lines formed at gas stations across the United States due to the ‘First Oil Shock’ triggered by OPEC banning oil exports. Young Jeremy Rifkin planned a protest throwing empty oil barrels into the sea to protest against the government. This ‘Oil Party’ was inspired by the 1773 ‘Boston Tea Party’. The protest against taxation by throwing tea crates into the sea ignited the spark of the American Revolutionary War.

Behind the facades of an economist, sociologist, and futurist, Jeremy Rifkin’s activist side is not emphasized. On the evening of the 9th at 8:00 p.m. (Korean time), Rifkin (interviewed at the Washington Economic Trends Research Office in the United States) shared a story from 50 years ago.

After teaching economics at the Wharton School for 15 years, he mentioned that the saying ‘crisis is an opportunity’ inspired him to see the possible ‘opportunity of mankind’s sixth extinction’. He urged people to act immediately. The governments going against this trend are fiercely criticized as ‘anachronistic’. The globally released ‘Planet Aqua’ on the 3rd is, in a strong sense, a ‘pamphlet’ of the ‘hydroism’ (water ecology) ‘movement’ led by him.

“Imagine. What if the Earth’s 8 billion population woke up and didn’t know where they were living.”

Rifkin stated that the planet is in a crisis, experiencing rapid changes worldwide. The title ‘Planet Aqua’ refers to the ‘water planet’ Earth. Water is now trying to regain ‘resilience’.

Resilience means a compressed spring returning to its original state. Rifkin said, “Starting from the river basins 6,000 years ago, the flourishing urban hydro civilization ended, and the rejuvenation of water began.”

The ‘water planet’ Earth has started seeking ‘recovery’. “Droughts and floods, unquenchable wildfires, melting glaciers, undrinkable water” are evidence of this. Cases of water rejuvenation abound worldwide. The groundwater level supplying water to Beijing, China, decreases by 1m each year, and infrastructure like power facilities in Chicago, USA, is exposed to risks as the ground below the surface heats up.

Rifkin said, “With every 1°C rise in global temperature, there will be a billion climate refugees, not in 50 years, but in 20 years.” This is the talk of the ‘Age of New Nomads’ approaching.

Even in such a situation, Rifkin’s outlook is positive. “95% of the 25,000 years since Homo sapiens appeared have been spent as nomads.” New technologies being developed are also on humanity’s side. “Experiments such as ‘slow water movement’, ‘water resource microgrids’, ‘sponge cities’, and agriculture using 250 times less water are being conducted.” Solar and wind renewable energy are also included. “In 2019, the fixed costs of solar and wind energy plummeted. The sun and wind do not send us bills (zero marginal cost).”

In a video interview, Rifkin read a note he had written on paper. The future envisioned by a futurist with the power to penetrate economics, society, and history and set agendas was as follows.

“From ownership to accessibility, from vertical economy to horizontal economy, from centralization to decentralized organization, intellectual property rights to open-source, agile SMEs instead of a few big corporations, from zero-sum games to network effects, from globalization to localization, from geopolitics to ecocentric politics, national states will transition to ecological regional concepts.”

The premise of a bright future is, of course, ‘accurate perception of the situation’ and accepting change. Nevertheless, he expressed regret towards the Korean government and industry for going against the trend of the times.

Korea has downsized the renewable energy industry and is developing new oil and gas fields in the East Sea. It also announced the construction of 14 new ‘climate response dams’. It declared the revival of nuclear energy and participated in foreign nuclear development with the K-nuclear power plant.

“Nuclear power uses turbines with coal, oil, and natural gas and cools them with water. France, which provides 68% of its total electricity through nuclear power, recently faced a situation where rising temperatures made it unable to use cooling water, causing power plants to shut down. It’s unfortunate that Korea uses outdated technology instead of renewable energy, which is much cheaper, especially in a situation where it is hit hard by the climate crisis.”

“We need to create a worldview that fits the water planet. Just as John Dewey said, ‘Listen and respond to it,’ we must pay attention to water.” Rifkin’s urgent cry that the idea of taming water is just a misconception.

Reporter Gudrae [email protected]

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