It is observed that there is a possibility of North Korea conducting its 7th nuclear test around the US presidential election in November. The Korean military authorities see the 3rd tunnel at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site in Kilju-gun, North Hamgyong Province, as a likely location if North Korea were to carry out a nuclear test.
According to information submitted by the Defense Intelligence Headquarters to Kang Dae-sik, a member of the National Defense Committee of the ruling party “People’s Power,” the Korean military responded to Kang that the 3rd tunnel is a likely location if North Korea decides to conduct a nuclear test. The military stated that North Korea has developed its nuclear weapon manufacturing capabilities through past six nuclear tests and has secured a significant level of nuclear weaponization capabilities.
North Korea detonated the 3 tunnels at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site on May 24, 2018. However, since then, they have been preparing for additional nuclear tests, including the restoration of the tunnels three times from 2022. Satellite images taken by civilian satellites have revealed traces of vehicle traffic and snow removal operations at the 3rd tunnel, which are analyzed to be for the maintenance and repair of the tunnel.
North Korea recently revealed a uranium enrichment facility, increasing the threat of nuclear weapons. Future North Korean nuclear tests are expected to be tests for the verification of the tactical nuclear warhead “Volcano-31,” which was unveiled in March last year.
Through this, North Korea is expected to demonstrate that the Volcano-31 can be mounted on various long-range ballistic missiles, including the KN23 series of tactical guided weapons, super-large-caliber artillery, short-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, nuclear torpedoes, and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), intimidating countries such as Japan, the United States, and South Korea.
Furthermore, there is a general perception that North Korea may conduct a nuclear test around the time of the US presidential election to enhance their negotiating power with the US and to aim for a politically advantageous timing.
In relation to this, the Korean military evaluates that North Korea has political intentions to demonstrate advanced nuclear technology, establish itself as a nuclear-armed state, ensure the explosion reliability of developed tactical nuclear weapons and high-yield hydrogen bombs, and progress towards the advancement of nuclear capabilities through its 7th nuclear test.
The Korean military believes that if North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un and other commanders make a political decision, they are prepared to conduct a nuclear test at any time. However, at present, there is no imminent situation such as the installation of equipment for a nuclear test in the 3rd tunnel.