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Wednesday, December 4, 2024

Signal of simultaneous rate cuts in major countries signals end of tightening era.

In a speech at the annual economic policy symposium held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on August 23, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that it is time to adjust monetary policy. Financial markets interpret this as a clear message that he will lower interest rates at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on September 17-18. Powell’s remarks were seen as unusually direct given his usual moderate approach, according to MarketWatch. Reuters reported that Powell emphasized the protection of the job market as a top priority and indicated that he would not shy away from making interest rate cuts ahead of the November presidential election. However, Powell left open the possibility of a significant rate cut of 0.50%. He stated that the direction of the policy is clear, and the timing and speed of rate cuts will be determined based on incoming data, changing economic outlooks, and risk balances. The financial market expects that the August non-farm payroll report, which will be released on September 6, will play a key role in the rate cut decision. Other Fed officials attending the Jackson Hole symposium echoed Powell’s message. Charles Evans, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said in an interview with CNBC that they also want to focus on employment, in line with Powell’s speech. Raphael Bostic, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, suggested that initiating the first rate adjustment a bit earlier may be appropriate, as inflation has slowed more than expected. Patrick Harker, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV that it is time to start the rate-cutting process but emphasized that the process should be systematic. Meanwhile, Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, assessed in his speech at the Jackson Hole symposium that the risk of sustained inflation is diminishing. The Bank of England cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 5% earlier this month, marking the first change in interest rates since the COVID-19 pandemic. Financial markets are expecting further rate cuts in November. Additionally, European Central Bank (ECB) officials also made dovish statements. Olli Rehn, President of the Bank of Finland and an ECB policymaker, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV at Jackson Hole that the need for a rate cut in September has increased due to the slowdown in Europe’s growth, especially in the manufacturing sector. He also noted that European inflation is continuing to decline. Mario Centeno, President of the Bank of Portugal, stated that based on inflation and growth indicators, a rate cut in September should be an easy decision. The ECB previously lowered its interest rate from 4.50% to 4.25% in June, becoming the first central bank globally to cut rates. The financial markets are closely watching the ECB’s monetary policy meeting in September for further rate cuts. Bloomberg reported that central banks in Canada, New Zealand, and China are also joining the trend of easing monetary policy. Bank of Korea Governor Lee Ju-yeol publicly stated after a rate freeze on August 22 that four out of six members of the monetary policy board, excluding himself, believe that there should be room for a rate cut within the next three months. On the other hand, the Bank of Japan has taken a tightening stance. Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda reaffirmed the stance of raising interest rates during a review by the Lower House Finance Committee on August 23. Kuroda emphasized the need to adjust the degree of monetary easing under the assumption that achieving the target of a 2% inflation rate is possible. However, he noted that the financial market is still in an unstable situation and that he will closely monitor it with a very high level of vigilance. The Bank of Japan unexpectedly raised its benchmark interest rate by 0.15 percentage points to 0.25% on July 31, causing confusion in global stock markets, following which both the Japanese yen and global stocks showed signs of turmoil.

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